[Visible Commentary] Changes in the World Order in 2023 and the Future of the Korean Peninsula: Competition in Northeast Asian Arms Buildup and South Korea's Diplomatic Challenges

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlIZe1ram6A

In the New Year's Special Visible Commentary, Ha Young-sun, Chairman of the East Asia Institute (EAI), emphasized that 2023 will be a decisive year in determining the direction of the world order and predicted changes in international affairs in 2023 brought about by Japan's military buildup. He pointed out that Japan's military buildup and efforts to secure counterattack capabilities will fully ignite a rapid arms race in the region, necessitating integrated security thinking from a global perspective, not just from the bilateral viewpoint of Korea-Japan relations. Based on this, he suggested that South Korea should prioritize cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan based on the values of freedom, peace, prosperity, and coexistence, and while striving to accurately understand the Indo-Pacific and global order with consensus between conservatives and progressives, it should also consider solutions to the North Korean issue.

1. Japan's Outlook for 2023: Implications of the Three Major Security Documents

“Full-scale rapid arms race requires integrated security thinking from a regional or global perspective, not a bilateral one.”

2. South Korea's Diplomatic Challenges in 2023

(1) “Cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan based on the values of freedom, peace, prosperity, and coexistence must be prioritized.”

(2) “While striving to accurately understand the Indo-Pacific and global order with consensus between conservatives and progressives, efforts should be made to consider solutions to the North Korean issue.” ■

■ Watch Part 1: U.S.-China Relations and North Korea Outlook

■ Ha Young-sun_ Currently serves as Chairman of the East Asia Institute (EAI) and concurrently as Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University. He served as a member of the Senior Advisory Council for the Inter-Korean Summit Preparation Committee and the Presidential Advisory Council on National Security (2008-2016). He holds bachelor's and master's degrees in Diplomacy from Seoul National University and a Ph.D. in International Politics from the University of Washington. He was a professor in the Department of Diplomacy at Seoul National University (1980-2012) and was a visiting scholar at Princeton University's Center for International Studies and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. His recent books and edited volumes include "The Geopolitics of Love: War and Peace" (2019), "A Correct View of Korean Diplomatic History: Tradition and Modernity" (2019), and "The Competition to Build the Indo-Pacific Order between the U.S. and China" (2017).

Video Script

Korea-Japan relations will continue to be strained, and I believe 2023 will be a year where we cannot keep up with the changes on the stage without viewing all of this in a regional or global context. Primarily, in terms of the current international power dynamics, being based on South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation is inevitably the foremost foundation. While cooperating among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan based on shared values of freedom, peace, and prosperity, we should strive to lead towards a situation where China can coexist with us all. It is not an unachievable choice to accept this endeavor.