[Visible Commentary] Changes in World Order in 2023 and the Future of the Korean Peninsula: Prospects for US-China Relations and North Korea

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hmIS2WUzc8

In the New Year's Special Visible Commentary, Professor Ha Young-sun, Chairman of the East Asia Institute (EAI), emphasizes that 2023 will be a decisive year in determining the direction of the world order and forecasts the international political changes that will arise in 2023 due to US-China relations and North Korea's nuclear capabilities. Through an analysis of official statements, it is predicted that the US and China will enter a phase of "exploration" and "adjustment" in 2023. North Korea's nuclear armament buildup is expected to lead to the strengthening of US's integrated deterrence and ROK-US-Japan security cooperation, as well as intensified international sanctions, thus failing to guarantee its sovereignty, right to survival, and right to development.

1. Historical Significance of 2023 00:20

"2023, a Decisive Year Determining the Direction of World Order"

2. Prospects for US-China Relations in 2023 02:23

"US-China Relations Will Not Solely Worsen... 2023 is a Year of 'Exploration' and 'Adjustment'"

3. Prospects for North Korea in 2023 10:23

"North Korea's Nuclear Armament Buildup Fails to Guarantee Sovereignty, Right to Survival, or Right to Development... Will Face Severe Difficulties in 2023" ■

■ Watch Part 2: Northeast Asian Arms Race and South Korea's Diplomatic Challenges

■ Ha Young-sun_ Currently serves as Chairman of the East Asia Institute (EAI) and concurrently as Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University. He served as a member of the Senior Advisory Council for the Inter-Korean Summit Preparation Committee and the Presidential National Security Advisory Council (2008-2016). He holds a bachelor's and master's degree in Diplomacy from Seoul National University and a Ph.D. in International Politics from the University of Washington. He taught as a professor in the Department of Diplomacy at Seoul National University (1980-2012) and was a visiting scholar at Princeton University's Center for International Studies and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. His recent books and edited volumes include "World Politics of Love: War and Peace" (2019), "A Correct View of Korean Diplomatic History: Tradition and Modernity" (2019), and "US-China Competition in Building the Asia-Pacific Order" (2017).

Video Transcript

The US-China strategic competition will continue, but there is room for exploration. Looking into Chinese documents, the word "exploration" holds significant meaning. Checking American documents, the word "adjustment" is newly emerging. Competition will proceed in areas such as the economy and technology, while simultaneously, efforts will be made to find minimal spaces for cooperation. Of course, if this proves difficult, strategic competition may intensify, but it is likely to be a phase where possibilities for adjustment within limits are sought.