[Global NK Interview] 北朝鮮の核危機創出に伴う米韓同盟の対応方向

YouTubeリンク : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZ3viZ0A5pg

デービッド・マックスウェル民主主義擁護財団上級研究員は、北朝鮮が朝鮮半島における米国の拡大抑止の弱体化を目標に核能力を高度化させていると説明します。しかし、北朝鮮の軍事的脅威の水準が高まるにつれて、地域内の米国同盟国間の協力と安全保障能力が強化されているため、金正恩政権は政策目標を達成できていないと主張します。北朝鮮のミサイル能力高度化により、米本土を射程圏に収めることで、米韓同盟のデカップリング（切り離し）が起こる懸念については、朝鮮半島問題が米国の地域戦略全般にわたって莫大な影響を及ぼす事案であると強調し、米国が北朝鮮から攻撃されることを恐れて韓国に対する拡大抑止を弱める可能性はないと一蹴します。

I. North Korea’s Increasing Nuclear and Missile Threat to the U.S. and Its Allies

• North Korea poses an existential threat to South Korea, maintaining an offensive and provocative military posture, evidenced by its 75 missile launch tests this year. Mr. Maxwell suggests that North Korea is pursuing (1) advanced warfighting capabilities, (2) political warfare, and (3) blackmail diplomacy. He states that “the ultimate goal is to have warfighting capabilities to be able to win a war against South Korea… North Korea seeks to drive the U.S. forces off the peninsula, and tries to gain political and economic concession with the use of increased threats, tensions and provocations.”

• Despite North Korea’s attempt to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington, the two countries are maintaining robust security ties, as shown by the U.S. deployment of strategic assets and reinvigoration of military exercise programs. Mr. Maxwell claims that “the U.S-ROK alliance should remain strong and successfully maintain deterrence until Kim Jong-un can no longer be deterred.”

II. Possible Decoupling of the U.S.-ROK Alliance as a Result of Increase in the Range of North Korea’s Missiles

• Despite the ongoing threat of North Korea and its potentially improved nuclear and missile capability to strike Washington, Mr. Maxwell emphasizes that it would be a major strategic error for Washington to decouple from South Korea as “there will be no guarantee that the North would not strike the United States… and if South Korea is attacked, it is also a terrible thing for the United States. This small peninsula is at the nexus of really the entire world.”

• Mr. Maxwell believes that the U.S. must be committed to deterring war, preparing for any contingency, and supporting South Korea’s quest to achieve a free and unified Korea.

• South Korea serves as an important partner to the United States by being an “arsenal of democracy” alongside the United States, such as by providing advanced weaponry to members of NATO. Yet, Mr. Maxwell emphasizes that “we respect the difficult position, Korea is in a shrimp among whales, the threat from the North, as well as the challenges from China.” ■

■ David Maxwell_ is a senior fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a 30-year veteran of the United States Army, retiring in 2011 as a Special Forces Colonel with his final assignment serving on the military faculty teaching national security strategy at the National War College. He has served in various command and staff assignments in the Infantry in Germany and Korea as well as in Special Forces at Ft. Lewis, Washington; Seoul, Korea; Okinawa, Japan; and the Philippines, with total service in Asia of more than 20 years. Following retirement from the Army he served as Associate Director of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University from 2011 through 2017.

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you know it makes the news for every missile launch but he is not achieving his objectives and the alliance just keeps getting stronger the strength of the alliance has been successful and I think will continue to successfully deter Kim Jong-un until he can no longer be deterred I take exception to your premise that if North Korea can successfully attack the U.S that that will lead to decoupling that will be a major strategic error on the United States part because even though we decouple that is no guarantee that the north

still would not strike the United States that's a terrible thing if the United States Homeland is is attacked but if South Korea is attacked it is also a terrible thing for the United States what happens on the Korean Peninsula is going to have Global effects and so the United States cannot must not and I don't think we'll ever decouple from South Korea