[Knowledge Maru Talk SNS Live Broadcast] Professor Jeon Jae-sung, “South Korea Must Play the Role of a Middle Power to Prevent US-China Conflict”

YouTube Link: video.eai.or.kr/SNSliveweb_120228.flv

Professor Jeon Jae-sung (@eai_2002), Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University and Director of the Center for Asian Security Studies at the East Asia Institute (EAI), held EAI's first Knowledge Maru Talk SNS Live Broadcast discussion on February 28, under the theme “US-China Competition Era, South Korean Diplomacy at a Crossroads.”

In this Knowledge Maru Talk, conducted via Wikitree's 'Social Broadcast,' Director Jeon discussed the diplomatic strategy South Korea should pursue amidst its military alliance with the United States and its strategic partnership with China. Reflecting the intense interest in recent US-China relations, numerous questions were posed on Facebook and Twitter.

Director Jeon first assessed the future of US-China relations from a medium- to long-term perspective, stating, “Due to the US's 'return to Asia' strategy, East Asia has emerged as a stage for US-China confrontation, placing the Korean Peninsula at the 'core of US-China conflict.'

He further predicted, “Nevertheless, structurally, the US and China are in a relationship that requires cooperation, so the possibility of a new Cold War, as some fear, is low.”

When asked about measures for South Korea to smoothly resolve North Korean issues in the era of US-China competition, Director Jeon predicted, “If the US and China confront each other geographically in the future, China will absolutely not be able to abandon North Korea, with which it shares a 'lips and teeth' relationship, thus the Korean Peninsula will be significantly impacted.”

He argued, “To prevent this, we must effectively utilize the Six-Party Talks, the only multilateral security dialogue in Northeast Asia.”

In this regard, he emphasized, “By leading the Six-Party Talks, we must enhance our regional influence. The better South Korea handles North Korean issues, the more the US and China will pay attention to South Korea's positions and voices.”

Director Jeon added, “China, as the chair of the Six-Party Talks, does not desire a crisis situation on the Korean Peninsula and has a strong will to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue through the Six-Party Talks. North Korea also still holds expectations for the Six-Party Talks, as it is its only channel for receiving external assistance.”

Regarding the recent issue of North Korean defectors, Director Jeon stated, “It will be difficult for China to change its fundamental position in its bilateral relations with North Korea,” while also advising, “The important thing is for South Korea to demonstrate its intention not to politically exploit human rights.”

When asked to introduce the new international political theory presented in his book, "East Asian International Politics: From History to Theory," published at the end of last year, Director Jeon pointed out, “The question of ‘Where should we position ourselves amidst the US and China?’ is unavoidable. To answer it, an understanding of East Asian international politics must precede it.”

Director Jeon also introduced the principle of complex organization, which he posits as the organizing principle of future international politics, explaining, “East Asian international politics is a place where time and space are complex. Therefore, the intention of the book is to re-examine the political structure of East Asia beyond simply asking where it lies between the US and China.”

Regarding the direction of desirable future South Korean diplomacy, Director Jeon assessed, “The Korean Peninsula amidst the US and China is fluid. Both the US and China speak of the inevitability of conflict, pressuring neighboring countries to make choices. This carries the risk of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, so we must plan step-by-step by predicting various scenarios.”

In this regard, he added, “We must consider the role of a middle power that can prevent conflict between the two countries.”