Changing Korean Voters 3: The 18th National Assembly Election Through Panel Surveys

Changing Korean Voters: Today's Korean Voters Are Different from Yesterday's

The East Asia Institute (EAI, Director: Lee Sook-jong) has introduced a panel survey method, the first in the history of Korean election research, to track attitude and voting behavior changes over time among the same subjects. Over three national elections, from the 2006 local elections to the 2008 National Assembly election, EAI tracked changes in the thoughts and voting behavior of Korean voters. Changes in voter attitudes and voting behavior are simultaneously transforming the structure and processes of Korean politics.

The results of four years of research by a team comprising leading scholars in Korean election studies, including Professor Park Chan-wook (Seoul National University) as the head, along with mid-career scholars Kang Won-taek (Soongsil University), Kim Min-jeon (Kyung Hee University), Lee Nae-young (Korea University), and Lee Hyun-woo (Sogang University), as well as junior scholars equipped with the latest theories and analytical methods, and 20 expert pollsters from the JoongAng Ilbo, SBS, and Korea Research, are compiled in this publication, "Changing Korean Voters 3: The 18th National Assembly Election Through Panel Surveys" (Co-edited by Kim Min-jeon and Lee Nae-young, published by the East Asia Institute).

While this book primarily analyzes voter behavior in the 2008 general election, it also focuses on the changes in voters that occurred within the short four-month interval between the December 2007 presidential election and the April 2008 National Assembly election. This is because today's voters are different from yesterday's voters.

New Changes in the 2007-2008 Elections

Weakening of Ideological Factors and Vote Concentration

Where Has the Missing Political Generation, 386, Gone?

The Rise of Contradictory Voters: Anti-American and Reform Advocates Engaged in Education and Financial Investment

Consequences of the Decline of Political Issues

Signs of Expanding Economic Influence in Korean Society Amidst Political Overload

The Subtle Revival of Political Cleavages: Triggering Diversified or Fragmented Multi-Party Competition

Renewed Interest in Candidate (Individual) Factors: "Conformity to Party Line, Leftist Legislative Activities - Not Helpful for Re-election"

Reinterpretation of Research on Undecided Voters and Voter Turnout Theory

The Increase in Non-Returning Undecided Voters and Abstention

Why Do Highly Educated Individuals Abstain in Korea, Unlike in the West?

Korean Politics After the General Election: The Duality of Change

Table of Contents

Foreword

Methodology and Operation of the Panel Survey for the 18th National Assembly Election | Kim Choon-seok · Park Jong-sun

Part I: Key Issues of the 18th National Assembly Election

Chapter 1: Realignment of Party Support in the 18th General Election: A Temporary Phenomenon or Structural Change? | Lee Nae-young

Chapter 2: Where Has the 386 Generation Gone? Ideology and Generation in the 2007 Presidential Election and 2008 General Election | Kang Won-taek

Chapter 3: Contradictory Voters: Enemies of Democracy or Ideal Voters? | Yoo Sung-jin

Part II: Similarities and Differences Between the 18th National Assembly Election and the 17th Presidential Election

Chapter 4: Voter Turnout and Educational Attainment | Seo Hyun-jin

Chapter 5: 'Undecided Voters' in the 18th National Assembly Election | Jin Young-jae · Kim Min-wook

Chapter 6: Social Cleavages and Voting Choices: The Influence of Region, Generation, and Ideology | Park Chan-wook

Chapter 7: The Impact of the Economy on Elections: Economic Voting in the 17th Presidential Election and 18th General Election | Jeong Han-wool · Kwon Hyuk-yong

Part III: Candidates and Election Results

Chapter 8: Legislator's Performance and Re-election Outcomes: Focusing on Evaluations of Diligence, Ideology, and Partisanship | Kim Min-jeon

Chapter 9: The 18th National Assembly Election and the Incumbency Effect | Lim Sung-hak

Appendix

For the convenience of our readers, parts of the manuscript are made available.