The Changing Korean Voter: An Analysis of the May 31 Local Elections Through Panel Data

The East Asia Institute (EAI) Center for Public Opinion Research is publishing the book "The Changing Korean Voter," based on an analysis of data from the "2006 National Local Elections Panel Survey," jointly conducted by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research in 2006. Edited by Nae-young Lee (Director, EAI Center for Public Opinion Research; Korea University), Hyun-Woo Lee (Sogang University), and Jang-Soo Kim (Korea University), this book features nine contributors who analyze the changes in attitudes and factors influencing voting decisions of Korean voters in the May 31, 2006 local elections from various perspectives.

"The Changing Korean Voter" is the result of the "2006 National Local Elections Panel Survey," planned and conducted jointly by EAI, SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research. From January 2006, when the panel survey was formally planned, to the panel survey workshop held at the end of June after the election, the four institutions collaborated to track the sentiments of Korean voters. By establishing a new academic-industry-media collaborative research model, comprising "specialized research institutions, broadcasters, newspapers, and specialized survey agencies," the aim was to enhance the reliability of the survey and the distinctiveness of the analysis. The authors of this book all directly participated in the "2006 National Local Elections Panel Survey" project, and their year-long deliberation and analysis are condensed into this volume. Will the Grand National Party's high approval ratings continue until the 2007 presidential election? Can the pro-government camp recover its lost support base? This book offers clues to answering such questions.

Table of Contents

Part I Why Panel Surveys?

Chapter 1 Election Research and Panel Surveys | Jang-Soo Kim

1. Why Panel Surveys?

2. Issues in Election Research and Panel Surveys in the United States

3. The First Local Election Panel Survey in Korean Election Research

4. Conclusion: Limitations of the Survey and Strategies for Overcoming Them

Chapter 2 Methods and Operation of the May 31 Local Elections Panel Survey | Chun-Suk Kim, Jong-Sun Park, Won-Chil Jung

1. Characteristics and Strategy of the May 31 Local Elections Panel Survey

2. Survey Design

3. Panel Construction and Management

4. Data Processing and Utilization

5. Implications of the May 31 Local Elections Panel Survey

6. Appendix: Analysis of Panel Attrition

Part II Changes in Voter Sentiments Revealed by Panel Surveys

Chapter 3 Local Elections Through the Lens of Panel Surveys | Won-Chil Jung, Han-Wool Jung

1. Introduction

2. Changes in Voter Sentiments Revealed by Panel Surveys

3. Analysis of the Causes of Vote Concentration

4. Conclusion

5. Appendix: Who are the Core Supporters of the Uri Party and the Grand National Party?

Chapter 4 Changes in Voting Intentions and Turnout | Hyun-Jin Seo

1. Introduction

2. Review of Existing Research on Voter Turnout

3. Empirical Analysis

4. Conclusion

Chapter 5 Analysis of Swing Voters in the May 31 Local Elections | Hyun-Woo Lee

1. The Necessity of Studying Swing Voters

2. Characteristics of Swing Voters

3. Empirical Analysis: Swing Voters and Factors Influencing Voting Decisions

4. Summary and Conclusion

Part III How to Explain Vote Concentration

Chapter 6 Attitudes Toward Political Ideology and Parties: Changes and Interplay | Jang-Soo Kim

1. Debates on Factors Influencing Voting Decisions

2. Changes in Attitudes Toward Political Ideology and Parties

3. Interplay Between Region, Political Ideology, and Party Attitudes

4. Conclusion: Implications and Limitations of the Paper

Chapter 7 Realignment of Party Support Bases in the May 31 Local Elections: An Analysis of Vote Defection | Nae-young Lee

1. Changes in Party Support Bases: A Temporary Phenomenon or Fundamental Realignment?

2. Theoretical Discussion on the Realignment of Party Support Bases

3. Analysis of Vote Defection in the May 31 Local Elections

4. Analysis of the Causes of the Uri Party's Support Base Collapse

5. Summary and Conclusion

Chapter 8 Party and Candidate Factors and Election Campaigns: Focusing on the Seoul Mayoral Election | Won-Taek Kang

1. Introduction

2. Theoretical Discussion

3. The 2006 Seoul Mayoral Election and Image Campaigning: Focusing on Symbolic Colors

4. Empirical Analysis: Changes in Candidate Support

5. Conclusion

Chapter 9 Is Economic Voting Possible in Korea? | Han-Wool Jung

1. The May 31 Local Elections and Economic Voting

2. Review of Prior Theories and Methodology

3. Conditions for Economic Voting in Local Elections: Perceptions of Responsibility are Crucial

4. Conclusion

Author

Won-Taek Kang

Currently a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Soongsil University. Graduated from Seoul National University with a degree in Geography. Holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). Served as the Chairperson of the EAI Panel on Civic Politics and as a research director for the Korean Political Science Association and the Korean Association of International Studies. Major publications include "Political Reform and Democracy in Korea," "Korean Electoral Politics: Ideology, Region, Generation, and Media," "An Analysis of Support for Third Candidates in Korean Presidential Elections," and "Protest Voting and Abstention under Plurality Rule Elections: An Alternative Public Choice Approach."

Kim Jang-soo

Currently a Research Professor at the Institute for Peace Studies, Korea University. Graduated from the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University. Ph.D. in Political Science from the State University of New York at Albany. Formerly a Senior Researcher at the Asiatic Research Center and a full-time research lecturer for the BK21 East Asian Education Research Group at Korea University. Major publications include “Asymmetric Activation and Conflicting Attitudes toward Political Parties” and “Polarization of Perception by Party Identification: Focusing on Mechanisms and Buffering Factors.”

Kim Chun-seok

Currently the Head of the Public Opinion Survey Department at Korea Research. Graduated from the Department of Journalism and Broadcasting, Korea University. Master's degree from the same university. Major publications include “Voter Sentiment in the October 26th National Assembly by-election through Post-election Public Opinion Surveys,” “Social and Political Consciousness of Voters Aged 18-19: A Comparison with those Aged 20 and Over,” and “Reflection on Public Opinion Surveys for the 4th National Simultaneous Local Elections.”

Park Jong-sun

Currently an Assistant Manager in the Public Opinion Survey Department at Korea Research. Graduated from the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Myongji University. Master's degree from the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Sogang University. Major publications include “Evaluation of Presidential Candidates' Qualifications Using Correspondence Analysis.”

Seo Hyun-jin

Currently a Professor in the Department of Social Education, Sungshin Women's University. Graduated from the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Sungshin Women's University. Ph.D. in Political Science from Purdue University. Formerly a Senior Researcher at the Institute for American Studies, Seoul National University, and a Researcher at the Institute for Civil Society Studies, Kyung Hee University. Major publications include *The Political Reform and Democracy of the United States* (co-authored), “South Korea's Civil Society and Democratic Governance: Focusing on the Case of the Anti-election Campaign,” and “Political Trust and Party Politics of South Korean Voters: Focusing on the Impact on Party Support.”

Lee Nae-young

Currently a Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University. Director of the Public Opinion Analysis Center at the East Asia Institute (EAI). Graduated from the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University. Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Formerly a Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Kyung Hee University, and a Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute. Major publications include *Democratization and Transitional Justice in East Asia* (co-authored), *Roh Moo-hyun's 2002 Presidential Election Evaluation and the Tasks of the Roh Moo-hyun Administration* (co-authored), *The Dilemmas and Choices of the Roh Moo-hyun Administration* (co-edited), *World Order and the Korean Peninsula in Transition* (co-edited), “Anti-American Sentiment and the ROK-US Alliance,” “Generations and Political Ideology,” and “Changing South Korean Public Opinion on the US.”

Lee Hyun-woo

Currently a Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Sogang University. President of the Association for American Political Studies. Graduated from the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Sogang University. Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Formerly a Professor in the Department of English and American Studies, Kyung Hee Cyber University. Major publications include *Changes and Continuities in U.S. Congressional Elections* (co-authored), “Issues and Campaign Strategies in the 16th Presidential Election,” “The Democratization of Mass Political Orientations in South Korea,” and “Internet and Election Participation through the Strengthening of Social Capital: The Case of the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election.”

Jeong Won-chil

Currently a Senior Researcher at the Center for Democratic Studies, East Asia Institute (EAI). Graduated from the Department of Public Administration, Chung-Ang University. Master of Public Administration from the same university. Formerly the Head of the Media Publishing Team at Issue Today. Major publications include *Roh Moo-hyun's 2002 Presidential Election Evaluation and the Tasks of the Roh Moo-hyun Administration* (co-authored) and *The Dilemmas and Choices of the Roh Moo-hyun Administration*.

Jeong Han-wool

Currently the Deputy Director of the Public Opinion Analysis Center at the East Asia Institute (EAI). Graduated from the Department of Spanish Language and Literature, Korea University. Completed doctoral coursework in the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University. Major publications include “Fluctuations in Issue Salience and South Korean Party Support,” “Alliance Transformation and South Koreans' Perceptions of the U.S.: Focusing on the Crisis Theory of the ROK-US Alliance and the Diversification of Perceptions of the U.S.,” and “Fluctuating Anti-Americanism and ROK-US Alliance.”

Research Support Team

Lee Sang-hyup, currently a Researcher at the Public Opinion Analysis Center, East Asia Institute (EAI). Graduated from the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. Completed doctoral coursework at the same university.

Shin So-yeon, former Researcher at the Public Opinion Analysis Center, East Asia Institute (EAI). Graduated from the Graduate School of Political Science and International Relations, Korea University.

Hong Seung-heon, former Researcher at the Public Opinion Analysis Center, East Asia Institute (EAI). Master's program in Political Science and International Relations, New York University (NYU).

[List of Book Introductions Reported in the Media]

1 [Kookmin Ilbo - Bookshelf] Changing South Korean Voters and Others by Jeong Han-wool 2007.10.26

2 [JoongAng Ilbo - New Books] Changing South Korean Voters by Jeong Han-wool 2007.10.12

3 [Chosun Ilbo - Book Cafe] Changing South Korean Voters by Jeong Han-wool 2007.10.12

4 [Yonhap News - New Book] Changing South Korean Voters by Jeong Han-wool 2007.10.10

We are releasing parts of the manuscript of this book for the convenience of our readers.