2020 China Risk: Mid-term and Long-term Forecasts and Risk Analysis of the Chinese Economy

The East Asia Institute (EAI) China Research Team has published the monograph [2020 China Risk], a study on mid-term and long-term forecasts and risk analysis of the Chinese economy. Co-edited by Professor Lee Keun (Seoul National University, Economics), Director of the EAI Center for Economic Catch-up, and Professor Kim Byung-kook (Korea University, Political Science and International Relations), EAI Director, this monograph, with contributions from a total of eight researchers, synthesizes the potential for sustained growth and risk factors in the Chinese economy in 2020 through the lens of China Risk Theory. This approach was adopted because objective mid-term and long-term forecasts of the Chinese economy are difficult to achieve if domestic and international discussions are mired in theories of China threat or China crisis without accurately diagnosing the various uncertainties confronting the Chinese economy. This book distinguishes between the top-tier goal of regime maintenance pursued by the Chinese Communist Party leadership and its sub-goals of economic growth and conflict mitigation, and attempts to predict the direction of change by deductively deriving the core of China risks that will arise at various levels by 2020.

[2020 China Risk] analyzes the constraints on China's economic growth across four dimensions—employment, macroeconomic stability, markets, and resources—in Parts II through V. Part VI presents 11 key forecasts for the Chinese economy in 2020 based on the analyses from each dimension.

Table of Contents

Part I: Background and Analytical Framework for China Risk Analysis

Chapter 1: Background for China Risk Analysis | Lee Keun, Kim Byung-kook, Bae Jin-seok

Chapter 2: Analytical Framework and Key Issues | Lee Keun

Part II: Economic Growth Mechanisms and Dilemmas of Choice

Chapter 3: To What Extent and How Should Urbanization Be Permitted? | Lee Ji-sun, Lee Keun

Chapter 4: Can Rural Areas and Farmers Also Prosper? | Lee Ji-sun, Lee Keun

Chapter 5: Can the Service Industry Solve Urban Unemployment? | Lee Ji-sun, Lee Keun

Part III: Macroeconomic Stability of the Chinese Economy

Chapter 6: Is Government Finance Sound? | Kang Young-sam

Chapter 7: What Financial and Macro Risks Exist? | Nathaniel Stankard

Chapter 8: How Will Global Imbalances Affect the Chinese Economy? | Nathaniel Stankard

Part IV: China's Sustained Economic Growth and Markets

Chapter 9: How Large Are Chinese Markets When Segmented by Income Class? | Kim Bu-yong, Lee Keun

Chapter 10: How Open Will China's Domestic Market Be? | Song In-young

Chapter 11: Can China Continue to Rely on the US Market? | Nathaniel Stankard

Part V: Sustainability of Growth and Resources

Chapter 12: How Free Is the Chinese Economy from Oil? | Bae Jin-seok

Chapter 13: Is There Enough Food for China's 1.3 Billion People? | Bae Jin-seok

Chapter 14: Are China's Growth and the Environment Compatible? | Nathaniel Stankard

Part VI: Summary and Conclusion

Chapter 15: Summary of Major Long-term Forecasts in Existing Literature | Lee Ji-sun, Bae Jin-seok

Chapter 16: 11 Key Forecasts for the Chinese Economy in 2020 and Comprehensive Assessment of China Risks | Lee Keun

Authors

Editors

Lee Keun

Graduated from Seoul National University, Department of Economics. Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley. Formerly a professor at the East-West Center in Hawaii and the University of Aberdeen, UK, and a consultant for the World Bank. Currently a professor in the Department of Economics at Seoul National University and Director of the EAI Center for Economic Catch-up. His main research areas include corporate organization, technological innovation, industrial policy, and the economies of China and North Korea. Recipient of the Cheongnam Award from the Korean Economic Association and the Maekyung Economist Award. Serves on the International Editorial Advisory Board of Research Policy. Major publications include [China's Corporate Industrial Economy], Knowledge diffusion, Market segmentation and Technological catch-up in China (Research Policy, 2005), and numerous others.

Kim Byung-kook

Graduated from Harvard University, Department of Economics. Ph.D. in Political Science from Harvard University. Member of the Presidential Advisory Council on Policy Planning. Formerly a Ralph I. Straus Visiting Professor at Harvard University's Kennedy School. Currently a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Korea University, Director of EAI, Associate Editor of the Journal of East Asian Studies, and Executive Committee Member of the International Political Science Association (IPSA). Major publications include [Dynamics of Division and Revolution], [State, Region, International System: Change and Continuity], co-editor of Consolidating Democracy in South Korea, co-editor of Between Compliance and Conflict: East Asia, Latin America, and the New Pax Americana, and Power and Security in Northeast Asia: Shifting Strategies (forthcoming).

Contributors(In Korean alphabetical order)

Kang Young-sam

Completed Master's and Doctoral programs in the Department of Economics at Seoul National University. Exchange student at the School of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai. Currently preparing his doctoral dissertation on empirical analysis of listed Chinese companies.

Kim Bu-yong

Graduated from Peking University, Department of Political Science and Public Administration. Doctoral candidate in the Department of Economics at Seoul National University. Publications include Empirical Analysis of Determinants of Gender Economic Growth in China: Focusing on Knowledge and Technology Variables (co-authored).

Bae Jin-seok

Graduated from Korea University, Department of Political Science and International Relations. Completed doctoral coursework in the Department of Political Science at the University of Texas at Austin. Visiting Research Fellow at EAI. Publications include "International Effects on Democratization in Developing Countries, 1975-1998" (co-authored) and "Democratization Effect on Political Business Cycles in Developmental States."

Song In-young

Expected to graduate from Carnegie Mellon University, Department of Policy. Intern at EAI.

Lee Ji-sun

Graduated from Seoul National University, Department of East Asian Studies. Doctoral candidate in the Department of Economics at Seoul National University. Publications include "Empirical Analysis of China's Unemployment Problem: Testing the Hypothesis of Industrial Structure Advancement" (co-authored).

Nathaniel Stankard(Nathaniel Stankard)

Graduated from Oberlin College, Department of Economics. Graduated from Harvard Law School. Henry R. Luce Scholar. Visiting Research Fellow at EAI. Policy Advisor to the Vice President of the United States. Major publications include "America’s Sorry Trade Performance" (co-authored) and "Imperfect Practice in the US-EU Trading Relationship" (co-authored).

For the convenience of our readers, parts of the manuscript are made available.