Introduction

I. Why AI?

Modern human civilization faces significant challenges, including geopolitical confrontations between great powers centered on US-China strategic competition, the spread of protectionism and fragmentation of supply chains leading to a reversal of globalization and severe disruption of the liberal international economic order, climate and pandemic/health crises, increasing risks of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism, and uncontrolled technological competition. If humanity continues to pursue narrow national interests and engage in great power-centric bloc confrontations without escaping the quagmire of sovereignty, the entire planet could face an existential crisis.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) lies at the heart of these future changes. AI can be defined as an 'enabling technology' and a 'force multiplier,' serving as a foundational technology that characterizes the changes and capabilities of other technologies. Consequently, it accelerates the pace of innovation while either exacerbating existing problems or offering new solutions. AI, when combined with nuclear weapons and weapon systems, can lead to destructive outcomes. It can also cause the fragmentation of the global economy, led by great powers, centered around control of the AI technology ecosystem, and accelerate global inequality. Domestically, it is projected to lead to the deepening of monopolies by tech giants, imbalances and unemployment in the labor market, the consolidation of authoritarian regimes, and societal fragmentation around specific values, beliefs, or goals. Conversely, AI technological innovation could maximize economic benefits while providing solutions to seemingly intractable problems such as environmental or health crises. In this regard, the direction of AI technology development is a key underlying variable that will determine the survival and prosperity of human society in the future.

The research team at the East Asia Institute (EAI) is systematically analyzing the macro-level changes in the military security and political-economic domains driven by AI technological innovation, which is considered a key variable in the transformation of the future world order. This work will analyze the US-China competition in the militarization and weaponization of AI, the creation of commercial AI models and the competition to build global supply chains, the expansion of monopolistic influence by big tech companies and changes in government-corporate relations, and collective responses to AI technology regulation. This project aims to present scenarios for future world order changes and ultimately to explore pathways for establishing a global governance system that reflects the perspectives of multiple stakeholders, not just great powers, to control and manage the destructive impacts of AI technology.

II. What are the Technological Characteristics of AI?

As a cutting-edge technology, AI possesses unique characteristics. First, due to the nature of AI technology, which mimics human intelligence, the catastrophic effects of its misuse are pervasive. Furthermore, as AI develops into Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Super Artificial Intelligence (SAI), it presents a fundamental problem of uncontrollability. Second, AI shares dual aspects of 'benefit/innovativeness' and 'risk.' Despite the existence of risks related to the militarization, misuse, and uncontrollability of AI, its benefits and innovativeness make control and regulation difficult. Third, AI involves diverse stakeholders, including not only nations but also individuals, corporations, and social groups (multi-stakeholderism). Therefore, it is difficult to shape and control the future of AI technology development solely through state-led regulation and control. Fourth, while international political crises such as climate change/environmental crises, nuclear war, and pandemics/health crises require focused cooperation to prevent catastrophe within each respective domain, AI has revolutionary impacts on all levels—individual, societal, national, and global—and across all fields, including military, economic, ideological, and political. Consequently, there are issues of multi-layeredness, comprehensiveness, and complexity in establishing regulation, control, and a new global governance system. Finally, the future of AI technology and the changes it will bring to individuals, societies, nations, and international politics are only in their nascent stages. It possesses infinite potential and explosive power, making it difficult to predict long-term future changes.

III. Changes in Military and Economic Order Brought About by AI

Our research team anticipates that the AI ecosystem will become fragmented amidst the ongoing US-China de-risking competition, as both nations vie for military applications of AI and the establishment of commercial AI models. Furthermore, while the US is expected to maintain a leading position due to its clear advantages in infrastructure, computation power, foundation models, and applications, the intense competition is likely to empower accelerationist voices within the policy circles of major countries, including the US and China, who advocate for problem-solving through technological innovation.

Amidst the AI technology competition among major powers, fragmentation will progress at the political-economic level, increasing the possibility of economic bloc formation. This could lead to multifaceted and multi-layered competition and escalating conflicts across all domains, including technology, industry, economy, and politics. Moreover, with the erosion of the deterrent effect of existing economic interdependence due to bloc formation, potential problems arising from the military use of AI (e.g., unintended escalation and war due to nuclear entanglement and dual-use technology, or the 'black box' problem) may manifest, increasing the likelihood of actual armed conflict and war at geopolitical flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific region, such as Taiwan, North Korea, and the South and East China Seas.

In this process, the Global South is highly likely to face political, economic, and social disparities with developed countries that are incomparably wider than before, leading to data, economic, and technological dependency and political instability. Simultaneously, their vulnerable security systems could be exploited, leading to severe instability through attacks on critical national infrastructure and financial systems. Furthermore, big tech companies leading the AI race may emerge as uncontrollable new hegemonic powers, exhibiting market monopolization, dominance over the labor market leading to mass unemployment, data bias and privacy violations, and challenging state authority. Therefore, if the current trajectory of AI competition continues, humanity could face extremely severe crises in the near future.

IV. Future Scenarios and New Civilization Standards

If the risks of AI militarization, economic fragmentation, a surge in AI misuse cases, and ultimately, human subjugation by AI materialize, how will the future world order unfold? As this study demonstrates, the future order will emerge as a complex interplay between the changes driven by AI technology and the dynamics of the existing order (Figure 1).

<Figure 1> Scenarios for AI Development by Sector and Future Order Transformation

This will manifest as: (1) an international system characterized by confusion and fragmentation of international norms and order (Path 1), division, and confrontation, driven by the sovereign competition of great powers and emerging nations in the absence of global leadership; (2) a system of mutual coexistence (Path 2) based on a certain level of cooperation on global challenges, alongside competition for influence, technological hegemony, and strategic advantage among great powers; and (3) the emergence of a comprehensive and complex global governance system (Path 3) through the democratic and multi-dimensional participation of states and non-state actors. This special report series will present the logic and theories underlying these scenarios and ultimately seek a blueprint for constructing a world order that aligns with future new civilization standards. ■

■ Yanggyu KimSenior Research Fellow, EAI; Lecturer, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University.

■ Yeol SonPresident, EAI; Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University.

■ Jae-Seong CheonDirector, EAI National Security Research Center; Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University.

■ Ha Young-sunChairman, EAI; Professor Emeritus, Seoul National University.

■ Managed and Edited by:Jisoo Park, Research Fellow, EAI

Inquiries and Editing: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr