[EAI Special Report] The Future of US-China Competition and Korea's Strategy I: The Four Hotspots of Economic Conflict_Planning Intent

"The Future of US-China Competition and Korea's Strategy I: The Four Hotspots of Economic Conflict"

Since establishing the core research project "US-China Competition and Korea's Strategy" in 2018, EAI has conducted research on "The Sustainability of China's Future Growth" and "A Framework for Asia-Pacific Energy Cooperation Amidst US-China Competition," and is currently proceeding with research on "The Future of US-China Competition and the Construction of a New Asia-Pacific Civilization." This research is a large-scale project that ① projects structural changes over the next 30 to 50 years, using 2030, when the economic scales of the US and China are expected to be neck-and-neck, and 2050, when their military expenditures are projected to converge, as two key turning points; ② selects and analyzes issue areas where confrontation and conflict between the two countries occur, clarifying the nature, scope, and developmental patterns of conflict in each sector; and ③ comprehensively predicts and presents the deepening pathways of conflict in the Asia-Pacific region, and based on this, formulates Korea's phased strategies.

The United States' global leadership is likely to undergo two phases of a leadership cycle: delegitimation and deconcentration. As the legitimacy and dominance of American hegemony decline, China is pursuing various ideological checks and actual balances, while the US is employing various preventive measures to thwart China's full-fledged balancing strategy and the subsequent advent of the deconcentration phase. The dynamics of this competition have already begun in the trade and technology arenas and are spreading to finance and currency, politics and norms, and military domains.

A portion of this research will be published as a Special Report series in three installments – Economics, Politics and Norms, and Military. The first series selects 5G, semiconductors, reserve currencies, and virtual currencies, which are hotspots of US-China competition in the economic arena, to present the US-China confrontation structure, patterns of conflict, possibilities for compromise, and Korea's response strategies. The publication schedule for the reports is as follows.

Lee Seung-ju, US-China 5G Competition 2.0 and Korea: Diversification Strategy and Middle Power Diplomacy (Published August 13)

Bae Young-ja, Prospects for US-China Competition and Korea's Response Strategy: The Semiconductor Sector (Published August 18)

Lee Yong-wook, US-China Strategic Competition for International Reserve Currencies and Korea's Response (Published August 20)

Lee Wang-hwi, US-China Digital Currency Competition: Digital Yuan vs. Digital Dollar (Published August 26)

[EAI Special Report] is a report planned and edited by collecting commentaries on specific topics and the results of research meetings. Please be sure to cite the source when quoting. EAI is an independent research institution independent of any partisan interests. The claims and opinions expressed in the reports, journals, and books published by EAI are not related to EAI and solely represent the views of the individual author.